1. The trend of intelligent lighting is established

1. Manufacturers scramble to launch new smart lighting products

Intelligent lighting refers to a distributed wireless telemetry, remote control and remote communication control system composed of computer, wireless communication data transmission, spread spectrum power carrier communication technology, computer intelligent information processing and energy-saving electrical control and other technologies to realize the control of lighting equipment. of intelligent control. It has the functions of intensity adjustment of light brightness, soft start of light, timing control, scene setting and other functions; and achieves the characteristics of safety, energy saving, comfort and efficiency.

Judging from recent market trends, smart lighting has become a new type of product that Philips and other manufacturers are competing to promote. At the Frankfurt exhibition at the beginning of the year and the Guangzhou Lighting Exhibition that just ended, smart lighting was also a hot topic of discussion. The smart lighting trend is well established.

2. The market is in its infancy, and it is expected to enter a period of rapid development in the next 1-2 years

The traditional lighting system is to manually control the switch to adjust the lighting demand. The basic principle of the intelligent lighting system is that the user gives instructions to the terminal module (including the mobile terminal), transmits the signal to the control center software through electronic induction, and adjusts the voltage and current amplitude of the circuit with the help of the controller, so as to control the intensity and color of the light source. regulation. The whole system can be divided into intelligent lighting control system, digital addressable LED driver, lamps and light sources.

A typical intelligent lighting system completes the transfer of data commands from input to output. Users can transmit data to the main controller (gateway) through various input methods (control software, sensors, smart sockets, etc.) )control.

The status quo of the intelligent lighting platform is fragmented, and there is no unified standard platform. Among the various parts of the existing intelligent lighting system, from the control platform, the control protocol to the light source products, because there is no unified product standard, the market products are characterized by decentralization and fragmentation. For example, only the control protocol is currently available in the market, such as WIFI, Bluetooth, ZigBee and NFC, and the control platform also has IOS, Android and other options.

Lighting manufacturers are betting on ZigBee. At present, many lighting manufacturers have begun to launch their own smart lighting products. ZigBee has also won the favor of most lighting manufacturers due to its low power consumption, low cost, safety and speed, and has become the network protocol adopted by their new products. GE, Philips, Osram, Toshiba and other major manufacturers have established an alliance to promote the Zigbee agreement, which is expected to become a general standard in the future industry.

In the early stage of market development, the lack of standards caused manufacturers to be confused and hesitant. If Zigbee becomes an industry standard, manufacturers' doubts will be eliminated to a certain extent. The diversification of control platforms and product forms can still provide sufficient design freedom. At that time, the industry will be in full bloom, and manufacturers will increase their promotion efforts. The market is expected to enter a period of rapid development in the next 1-2 years.

3. Intelligent lighting opens up the long-term growth space of the industry

Regarding the sustainability of the growth of the LED industry, market disputes mainly come from the following points: 1) How long can the replacement market support the rapid development of the industry? 2) Do LED lamps have a long lifespan? 3) After the rapid replacement period, where does the growth momentum of the industry come from?

Regarding the first question, data from the US Department of Energy shows that the penetration rate of LED lighting in the US market in 2013 is still less than 5%. Assuming that the penetration rate doubles every year, the replacement demand can last for 3-4 years. As for the life of LED lighting, we believe that in the period of rapid development of LED lighting, long life is not the most concerned factor for manufacturers, but to reduce costs as much as possible on the premise of meeting the life standard (20,000-30,000 hours), and after the industry matures, manufacturers will also We will not spare no expense to maximize product life.

Finally, LED smart lighting will increase the ASP and added value of products, and its development space is much larger than that of traditional lighting products, and the source of long-term growth momentum after the rapid replacement period can be solved.

According to market research, the cost of an LED drive power supply with intelligent control function is generally not more than 10 yuan, and the ex-factory price of lighting fixtures equipped with such a power supply is 20%-30% higher than that of ordinary lamps. The configuration can add at least 20% of the premium to ordinary lighting products (and this is not considering the addition of more complex systems and higher-end configurations).

We refer to CSA's statistics and forecasts on the market size of LED general lighting from 2009 to 2015, and conservatively assume that the premium of smart lighting products is 20%. In 2014 and 2015, the new market space brought by smart lighting to the industry will reach about 26 billion respectively. yuan and 36 billion yuan.

According to this calculation, on the basis of ignoring high value-added products, the smart lighting industry will provide an additional market space of at least RMB 60 billion in 2014-2015. If calculated according to the compound annual growth rate of 30%, it is conservatively estimated that this value will reach nearly 80 billion yuan by 2018, and the cumulative amount will exceed 200 billion yuan in five years.

4. Investment strategy

The establishment of the intelligent lighting trend will open up a broader growth space for the LED industry. Smart lighting will enter a period of rapid development in the next 1-2 years. It is recommended to lay out the LED smart lighting sector, focusing on the following main lines:

1) In the era of intelligent lighting, solution providers have the largest voice, Philips and other companies have obvious advantages, and manufacturers with close cooperation with them will benefit, such as Sunshine, Buddha, etc.;

2) Among the local lighting manufacturers, companies with larger brand influence have the greatest potential to transform into solution providers, and pay attention to NVC, Dehao, Sunshine, Oppo, Fozhao, Sanan, etc.;

3) The smart lighting market is more professional and requires strong technical and service team support. The value of engineering channels will be highlighted. Pay attention to NVC, Dehao, etc.;

4) Controller companies such as Topbond, Heertai, and Maoshuo Power also have greater flexibility.

Intelligent lighting has rich functions and huge added value

The essence of intelligent lighting is electronic and networked, which can not only realize the intelligent control of lighting system, but also be an entrance to the Internet, so as to derive more high value-added services, such as health management, map positioning, commodity shopping guide and advertising, etc. .

1) Scenario lighting

The intelligent lighting system can automatically adjust the intensity and color of the light in the room according to the user's light environment and the user's personal preferences. For example, when the outdoor weather is good and the sun is strong, the system will automatically dim the light to save energy; when the outdoor is cloudy and the sun is dim, the system will automatically dim the light to meet the user's light needs.

In recent years, with the development of smart terminals and concepts, users can even adjust the lights directly on their smartphones.

2) LED optical communication

Visible light communication (VLC) is a technology that major companies are stepping up research on. It can use LED lighting technology to realize data transmission by adjusting the frequency of visible light, so as to achieve the effect of data communication. In smart lighting, system control is mainly done through digitization, so LED visible light communication is also easier to achieve.

3) Healthy lighting

Creating a better light environment is also one of the purposes of intelligent lighting. Since the current "light pollution, light radiation" problem is gradually being paid attention to, creating a healthy lighting environment has become the most effective solution in this regard. The future intelligent lighting system will be able to reshape the light environment according to people's needs, and simultaneously reduce the negative effects such as stroboscopic, which can be closely integrated with health care.

4) Other derivative value-added services

On the basis of automatic adjustment and LED optical communication functions, the intelligent lighting system, as the entrance to the Internet, can also bring more value-added functions. Including map positioning, integration with home and terminal sensors, and medical health monitoring.