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Valuing the high value-added industrial chain of LED lighting may be the way out for the industry.
Oct 24,2013
In the next three years, China's LED lighting industry will enter a period of rapid growth. According to the "12th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Semiconductor Lighting Technology" released by the Ministry of Science and Technology in August this year, by 2015, the scale of China's semiconductor lighting industry is expected to reach 500 billion yuan, with the cost of LED lighting products reduced to one-fifth of that in 2011, and a market share of 30% in general lighting. Local governments are increasingly supporting the LED lighting industry.
However, the LED industry is currently facing a serious crisis of overcapacity, homogeneous competition, and a vicious cycle of low-price competition, making the development of the LED industry chain urgent. Therefore, developing new, fashionable, and high-quality LED lighting fixtures will be a major research topic in the future, with high added value and output, and should be prioritized from now on.
The development of the LED industry is divided into two stages.
In the first stage of LED development, the luminous efficiency of products was relatively low, while in the second stage, product efficiency continued to improve.
In 1962, Holonyak, working at General Electric in the United States, invented the gallium arsenide light-emitting diode and predicted: "Future lamps could be a piece of alloy the size of a pencil tip, practical and unbreakable, never burning out, with at least 10 times the conversion efficiency of today's common bulbs." In 1968, Monsanto launched commercial LED products, and over the past 30 years, the luminous efficiency of LEDs has increased tenfold every decade, reaching a total increase of 1000 times by the end of the last century. In October 1999, Haitz and others proposed the "second semiconductor revolution," marking the beginning of the semiconductor lighting revolution.
In 2000, Holonyak published an article titled "Are Light Emitting Diodes the Final Form of Lighting?" in the Journal of the American Physical Society, concluding that "in principle, light-emitting diodes are the final form of lighting, and in practice, they will develop to achieve all powers and colors, which is extremely important to understand." To date, high-brightness LEDs of various colors can be produced, and the luminous efficiency of white light power LEDs increased tenfold by 2010.
The development of the LED industry is divided into two stages: the first stage from 1968 to 1999 is the growth stage of the LED industry, characterized by relatively low luminous efficiency, mainly applied in signaling and display. The second stage from 2000 to 2020 is the stage of improving development in the LED industry, where product efficiency continues to increase from 15lm/W equivalent to incandescent lamps to 258lm/W, surpassing all existing electric light sources. Its application range expands into the lighting field, eventually becoming the main player in this area. Due to the leading technological development and the gradual expansion of market scale, the total scale of the LED industry has grown tenfold or even a hundredfold.
Adjustment towards the semiconductor lighting industry chain.
Under the new circumstances, the LED industry chain must be adjusted to the semiconductor lighting industry chain.
In the first stage of LED industry development, the structure of the industry chain was relatively simple, consisting of what we commonly refer to as the upstream, midstream, and downstream industries of LEDs.
The upstream industry chain of LEDs mainly refers to the epitaxy and chip manufacturing of LED materials, which we usually call chip manufacturers; the midstream industry chain refers to the packaging industry of LED devices, known as packaging factories; the downstream industry chain refers to the industry of LED display or signaling application products, mainly referring to LED displays, LED signal lights, LED automotive lights, LCD backlight sources, etc.
In the second stage of LED industry development, the luminous efficiency of LEDs continues to increase significantly. In addition to further developing in the original signaling and display fields, the highlight is the gradual expansion into the lighting field. By 2012, the efficiency of LED devices reached 130lm/W, which can not only replace incandescent and halogen lamps but also fluorescent lamps (including compact fluorescent lamps). The industry scale has grown significantly, especially as the lighting application market begins to take off. A typical example is that in 2010, Japan sold 20 million LED bulbs, and in 2011, sales reached 35 million. The European spotlight and PAR lamp market started, North America's downlight and bulb market started, and China's LED streetlight market started, leading people to call 2010 the first year of LED lighting. LED lighting applications will develop rapidly, and under the new circumstances, the LED industry chain must be adjusted to the semiconductor lighting industry chain.
The characteristics of the semiconductor lighting industry chain mainly include three aspects:
First, LED lighting applications as the main application field;
Second, in addition to producing LED light sources and LED lighting applications, the development of lighting services and system solutions using modern new technologies has become the largest industry in the industry chain;
Third, due to the expansion of the industry scale, this requires the development of manufacturing industries for corresponding production equipment and testing instruments.
The structure of the semiconductor lighting industry chain has developed into an inverted triangle. From the comparison of global semiconductor lighting industry chain data between 2010 and 2020, we can see the following five development trends:
First, in 2010, the entire industry chain was a diamond shape with a large middle and small ends, which is very abnormal. A healthy industry structure should be like the inverted triangle of 2020, where the export of an industry should be large;
Second, the total output value of the entire industry chain in 2020 will increase 53 times compared to 2010, with a very fast growth rate;
Third, the largest increase is in intelligent control LED lighting projects, which will exceed 700 times;
Fourth, the second largest increase is in lighting fixtures, which will grow 30 times in 10 years, followed by LED packaging components, which will grow 25 times in 10 years;
Fifth, based on the output value in 2020, the output value of lighting fixture systems is almost 4 times that of LED packaging components.
Regarding the development of the semiconductor lighting industry chain, there are the following points of view:
First, continue to develop materials and device production on the basis of initially establishing a complete industry chain. This is the foundation of the industry chain, and its leading growth will promote the continuous development of downstream industries. With the prospect of expanding output value by more than 50 times, efforts should be made to research and develop manufacturing and testing equipment, especially MOCVD equipment, and strongly support the priority use and promotion of qualified products, striving to use domestically produced equipment in the next wave of major development.
Second, under the preliminary resolution of LED light source quality, lifespan, and market conditions, increase the research and development efforts for lighting fixtures. Combining energy-saving light sources, high-quality lighting, and cultural arts will be an eternal theme. Just like fabrics and fashion, fabrics will be eliminated and developed, while fashion will keep pace with the times and remain popular, even cycling every 30 years. Providing high-quality LED lighting fixtures is something that can be started now, as many advantages of LEDs provide greater innovative space for lighting fixture design.
Thirdly, the greatest development should be in lighting services and system solutions, also known as intelligent lighting system control engineering. Modern technology provides us with sensors, network technology, wireless communication, and other hardware and software conditions, allowing us to build this platform. LEDs can be dimmed and color-adjusted, and are compatible with integrated circuits within a single system. The development of LED display technology and landscape lighting technology has already provided us with direction and can also generate secondary energy-saving benefits. A few years ago, we envisioned using mobile phones or computers to switch on or control home lighting outdoors, and this year we have seen experimental prototypes at the exhibition, with products reportedly available for sale soon. The energy-saving, environmentally friendly, and life-enhancing aspects of LED lighting will expand on a larger scale across broader fields.
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