The LED industry has been widely used in mobile phones, display screens and other markets since 2005. In 2008, it was catalyzed by the backlight application of NoteBook-mini, and quickly entered various backlight application fields, such as NB, Monitor, TV and other fields, and accelerated the LED industry. The rapid growth of scale has accelerated technological progress and price decline, making it possible for LEDs to enter the lighting field. Especially in 2011, affected by the European economic environment, the prices of various LED products have accelerated, and their prices are comparable to those of traditional lighting. The price of lighting products is gradually approaching, accelerating the application of LED in the lighting field.

In the future, the penetration of various types of backlights will continue to increase, especially in medium and large-sized backlight monitors, TVs, and Pads in emerging fields, and the penetration and quantity will maintain a relatively high growth rate; in the lighting field, with the gradual improvement of scale and industry support , With the improvement of the overall efficiency of LED, the terminal price of LED lighting products will continue to decline, the penetration rate will also accelerate, and the overall output value of the LED industry will continue to grow.

It is expected that the LED backlight market will still be a larger contributor in 2013

From the terminal point of view, the growth of the backlight application field in 2013 is mainly TV and Pad. Among them, the main driving factors for the growth of TV are as follows: one is the continuous penetration of the backlight field. According to the data of relevant research institutions, its penetration rate will be from about 70% in 2012 to more than 90% in 2013; The proportion of large-sized terminal shipments will continue to increase. It is estimated that the growth rate in 2013 will be 5%-10%, which is expected to be close to 10%. Third, from the perspective of emerging markets, emerging markets including China are expected to grow by about 15%. , showing that the market growth rate of emerging regions is the main driving force for growth. Fourth, with the change of consumption habits, the average size of TVs is getting larger and larger. According to research, TV has an average size of 34.5 inches (diagonal) in 2011, and is expected to reach 36.5 inches (diagonal) by 2013. As the size increases, the number of LEDs used will increase relatively. Therefore, with the trend of larger size, the increase in the average number of LEDs can effectively offset the reduction in the number of LEDs due to the improvement of LED technology.

On the whole, the penetration rate improvement, the high growth of the regional market, and the localization of the panel industry in mainland China have led to an increase in the proportion of localized procurement of backlights. It is expected that the LED backlight market in mainland China will still grow by 30%-40% in 2013 , is expected to reach 40% growth with policy stimulus.

The lighting market is expected to continue well in 2013

From the perspective of the comprehensive lighting application market, the average annual growth rate from 2011 to 2016 is 20%, mainly including alternative lighting, architectural lighting, retail lighting, commercial lighting, entertainment lighting, security lighting, grating lighting, portable lighting, residential lighting, outdoor lighting Lighting, etc. Among them, the growth rate of alternative lighting, architectural lighting, retail lighting, and commercial lighting exceeds the average growth rate of the industry. The compound growth rate from 2011 to 2016 is expected to be more than 20%. Retail lighting, commercial lighting, architectural lighting The average annual growth rate is 48%, 23%, 27%. From the perspective of the proportion, commercial lighting accounted for the largest proportion in 2012, about 30-40%, followed by architectural lighting, portable lighting, and alternative lighting, which are expected to account for 10%-20%. The largest, accounting for 30% to 40%, other lighting fields have changed, but the overall is not too big. From 2014 to 2015, with the improvement of LED technology and the continuous decline of prices, it is expected that the proportion of applications using LED will change, but its main application areas will not change significantly.

Policy is expected to remain a major driving factor in 2013

From a global perspective, the ban on the elimination of incandescent lamps has entered a critical period. From 2012 to 2013, 60-75W incandescent lamps have entered the stage of accelerated elimination, and the influencing factors are far greater than the elimination of incandescent lamps above 75W (40-75W accounted for The proportion of incandescent lamps is expected to be around 70%); in addition, due to the impact of the 311 earthquake in Japan, the process of global denuclearization has accelerated the elimination of incandescent lamps and the replacement of new light sources. From the point of view of time, the major countries and regions where incandescent lamps will be phased out in 2013 will prohibit the phase-out window period of 75w, 60w, and 40w. In terms of coverage, the United States, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, the United Kingdom, Australia, the European Union, Japan, South Korea , China and other places have entered the prohibition and elimination period of incandescent lamps. Therefore, it will greatly stimulate the replacement and use of new light sources, and accelerate the promotion and use of LED lighting.

From the perspective of LED development plans in various countries, the United States, the European Union, South Korea, Japan, and China have all proposed a timetable for the replacement rate of LED lighting products. Among them, South Korea and Japan are particularly active. South Korea proposed that the government office lighting LED replacement rate in 2012 is 30% %, in 2015 to ensure that LED lighting products enter 30% of the general lighting market; Japan proposes that the LED lighting replacement rate will be 50% in 2015, the 100% replacement rate of LED lighting products in 2020, and the 100% utilization rate of LED lighting in 2030. LED has undergone product promotion, certification, and gradual revision and improvement of standards in 2010-2012. In 2013, it will enter a critical period. The promotion of policies will be a strong guarantee for the realization of the goal in 2015.

From the perspective of the mainland, since October 2011, the "China's phase-out roadmap for incandescent lamps" was issued for comments. The State Council proposed subsidies for energy-saving home appliances in the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan for the National Basic Service System", mainly for TVs and lighting products, of which 2.2 billion is mainly for lighting products. At the provincial and municipal levels, currently Guangdong, Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Shandong There are relevant plans in other places. It is planned to increase the investment in all aspects of LED and the promotion and implementation of lighting applications during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, which is expected to drive the market size of each region to more than 10 billion. At the local level, nearly 30 cities have introduced relevant promotion and subsidy plans, mainly to speed up urban road lighting, public lighting, architectural lighting, etc. Among them, Guangzhou, Dongguan, Huizhou, Foshan, Qingdao, Nanchang, Ningbo, Weifang, Yangzhou, Baoding and other places More positive, it is expected that the scale of investment in various places will be more than 1 billion.

From the perspective of the implementation schedule, the results of the central government's bidding proposal in October 2012 were announced as a landmark event, which stimulated provinces and cities to refer to the central bidding form to accelerate the promotion and implementation of LED lighting. , Zhuhai, Shanghai-Nanjing Expressway and other places have more public lighting bidding announcements. The overall volume of government bidding projects will be reflected in 2013, and the company's performance will mainly be reflected in 2013, which may be the year when the LED policy is truly implemented.

The market with high electricity price starts faster, and the market with longer lighting time starts faster

The replacement of traditional light sources by LED lighting is mainly subject to price, light efficiency, lighting time, and comprehensive cost considerations. In fact, it is mainly affected by the investment recovery period and scale. From the perspective of the type of lighting application, the current lighting is mainly used in general lighting, commercial lighting, chain lighting, factory lighting and so on.

From the perspective of various application fields, the main difference is that one is the length of the lighting time, and the other is the scale of the unit batch. In terms of lighting time, general lighting is generally 5-6 hours/day, the shortest, followed by commercial lighting (comprehensive shopping malls, architectural lighting, department stores, etc.), chain supermarket lighting (Family, Lawson, 7-11, Lianhua, Wal-Mart, Carrefour, Suning, etc.), factory lighting (24-hour lighting in the semiconductor industry, liquid crystal panel industry, precision processing industry, PV industry, etc.), the lighting time is gradually increasing; from the perspective of replacement scale, home lighting is great 100 lights per home, but the number of lighting in a single shopping mall is expected to be several times that of home lighting. Chain lighting, factory lighting, etc. can directly generate economic benefits.

Measured from the length of lighting time, factory lighting is expected to recover costs in about half a year, chain lighting is expected to be about 1 year, commercial lighting is expected to be about 1.5 years, and home lighting is expected to be about 2 years. Therefore, the willingness to replace factories and chain lighting with scale effect is stronger, so we believe that LED lighting must first be replaced and penetrated in the field of factory lighting, chain lighting, and commercial lighting, and finally home lighting.

Considering the urgency of replacement from the perspective of electricity price, assuming 0.5 yuan/kwh, 0.7 yuan/kwh, 1 yuan/kwh, 1.5 yuan kwh, 2 yuan/kwh comparison, respectively in the field of general lighting, commercial lighting, chain lighting, In terms of factory lighting, the higher the electricity price, the shorter the investment recovery period, and the investment recovery period of the highest and lowest grades in the same application field is 4 times different. Therefore, from a comprehensive perspective, Western countries with high electricity prices are more motivated in the promotion and replacement of LED lighting. . According to the comparison of electricity prices in various regions in the world, the electricity prices in European countries and regions are higher, such as Germany, Spain, Italy, etc. In addition, the electricity prices in Australia and Japan are also higher. Therefore, the penetration of LED lighting is rapidly promoted and implemented in countries and regions with relatively high electricity prices, and the willingness is strong.